Learn about El Niño and its impact on Pakistan with Meri Sehat. Stay informed for proactive health measures during climate variations.

What Is El Niño And How Does It Impact Pakistan?

The past few years have established climate change as more than just a bleak reality. Its effects can already be seen across the world in the form of extreme weather events, economic crises, healthcare emergencies, food shortages, and increasing poverty and displacement.

Introduction

According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global surface temperature has increased by 1.0&deg;C and will likely rise further by 1.10 &deg;C to 6.40&deg;C<a href="#accordion">[1]</a>. While the Industrial Revolution may have kickstarted global warming, the increased urbanization and deforestation in the last few decades seem to have sped up the process. 
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In a recent update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), scientists have predicted a record surge in global temperatures in the next five years<a href="#accordion">[2]</a>. The annual average near-surface global temperature is expected to be higher than 1.5&deg;C above pre-industrial levels between 2023-2027. Although this is likely to be on a temporary basis, the next five years are 98% more likely to be the warmest on record[2]. As per Professor Petteri Taalas, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General, a warming El Ni&ntilde;o is set to push global temperatures further into dangerous levels.

While El Ni&ntilde;o sounds like the name of a Spanish wrestler, it is far more dangerous than any takedown you may have seen. 
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Understanding the El Niño and its impact on Pakistan

In the 1600s, fishermen off the coast of Peru noticed unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean, around Christmas time<a href="#accordion">[3]</a>. The phenomenon soon became known as El Ni&ntilde;o.

El Ni&ntilde;o is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Although El Ni&ntilde;o was initially used to describe warmer ocean temperatures, it now refers to a more complex climate phenomenon called the El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The terms El Ni&ntilde;o and ENSO are often used interchangeably<a href="#accordion">[4]</a>.

El Ni&ntilde;o and La Ni&ntilde;a are two opposite phases of the El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. While El Ni&ntilde;o is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, La Ni&ntilde;a is characterized by unusually cool ocean temperatures in the same region<a href="#accordion">[4]</a>. 
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Normally, in the Pacific Ocean, trade winds blow in a westward direction along the equator. The surface water of the Pacific Ocean in the west is warmer than in the east. However, during El Ni&ntilde;o, the trade winds that blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific weaken or even reverse their direction. This leads to a decrease in the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water from the deeper ocean to the surface along the western coast of South America. As a result, warm surface waters spread eastward toward the coast of South America. 
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<h5>Global Impact Of El Ni&ntilde;o</h5>

El Ni&ntilde;o can cause considerable changes in the ocean temperatures, the health of coastal fisheries, the strength and speed of ocean currents, and the local weather in various countries, such as Australia. 
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The warming of the ocean surface has far-reaching effects on global weather patterns. Some of the notable impacts of El Ni&ntilde;o include<a href="#accordion">[3][5]</a>:

<ol>
	<li>Changes In Rainfall Patterns: El Ni&ntilde;o can cause shifts in rainfall patterns across the globe. Regions that typically experience wet conditions may become dry, while areas that are usually dry may experience increased rainfall. For example, during an El Ni&ntilde;o, the western coast of South America may experience heavy rainfall and flooding, while parts of Southeast Asia and Australia may experience drought conditions. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Intensified Storms: El Ni&ntilde;o can influence the behavior of tropical storms and hurricanes. It tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity but enhances the development of cyclones in the Pacific. This effect can lead to an increased risk of tropical storms in the eastern Pacific and decreased activity in the Atlantic. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Elevated Temperatures: El Ni&ntilde;o can result in above-average temperatures in various parts of the world. The warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean during El Ni&ntilde;o contributes to a transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to higher atmospheric temperatures. This increase in temperature can elevate the risk of heat stress in affected areas. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Impacts On Marine Ecosystems: El Ni&ntilde;o disrupts marine ecosystems by altering ocean currents and nutrient availability. This can have significant consequences for fish populations, coral reefs, and other marine organisms. El Ni&ntilde;o events have been associated with coral bleaching and declines in fish populations in some regions. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Health Implications:The heightened temperatures associated with El Ni&ntilde;o can directly impact human health, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke. Heat stress can also worsen existing health conditions and lead to <a href="https://merisehat.pk/disease/dehydration">dehydration</a>, cardiovascular problems, and respiratory issues. Vulnerable populations, including the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, are particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of heat stress. 
	&nbsp;</li>
	<li>Economic And Societal Impacts:Changes in rainfall patterns can impact agriculture, leading to crop failures and food shortages. The fishing industry may also be affected due to changes in ocean conditions and the relocation of fish populations. 
	&nbsp;</li>
</ol>

It&#39;s important to note that El Ni&ntilde;o events vary in their intensity and duration. Some events can be relatively weak and short-lived, while others can be more severe and last for an extended period. The events occur irregularly every two to seven years<a href="#accordion">[4]</a>. 
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As a low income country, Pakistan is often more vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events. Following are some of the potential effects of El Ni&ntilde;o on Pakistan<a href="#accordion">[6]</a>. 
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Altered Rainfall Patterns - One significant impact of El Ni&ntilde;o on Pakistan is altered rainfall patterns. Typically, El Ni&ntilde;o brings below-average rainfall to certain regions, and for an agricultural-based country like Pakistan, that can bring with it a multitude of problems. With less rainfall, crops suffer, and farmers face reduced yields, which can lead to food shortages and economic hardships. The effects are felt throughout the country, impacting livelihoods and exacerbating the challenges faced by already vulnerable communities. 
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Monsoon Variability - El Ni&ntilde;o also tends to disrupt the timing and distribution of rainfall. This can result in erratic monsoon seasons, with periods of heavy rainfall followed by prolonged dry spells which cause drought conditions in certain regions. Such unpredictability makes it difficult for farmers to plan and manage their crops effectively, leading to increased risks of crop failures and economic losses. 
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Glacial Melt - The increased temperatures and variable monsoon rainfall can also affect the rate of glacial melt in Pakistan. Since the country relies heavily on glacial meltwater for its water supply, this can have an impact on the timing and quantity of water available to various regions. 
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Scarcity Of Water - Water scarcity becomes a pressing issue during El Ni&ntilde;o. With reduced rainfall and higher evaporation rates, water resources, such as rivers and reservoirs, can experience lower water levels. This affects not only agriculture but also access to safe drinking water for communities. In Pakistan, where water scarcity is already a concern, El Ni&ntilde;o exacerbates the situation and places additional stress on water management and conservation efforts. 
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Public Health Challenges - Changes in water availability and quality can increase the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, and diarrhea. Vector-borne diseases, including dengue fever and malaria, may also be influenced by El Ni&ntilde;o&#39;s impact on temperature and precipitation patterns. 
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Extreme Weather - Extreme weather events are another consequence of El Ni&ntilde;o. The altered weather patterns can lead to an increased risk of heatwaves, droughts, and flash floods. These events can have devastating impacts on communities, causing loss of life, displacement, damage to infrastructure, and disruption of essential services. Vulnerable populations, including those living in poverty, are often the hardest hit and face prolonged recovery periods. 
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Economic Loss - Agricultural losses, damage to infrastructure, increased healthcare costs, and the need for emergency relief and rehabilitation efforts strain resources and affect economic stability. This can impede development efforts and pose challenges to the overall economy. 
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The impact of El Ni&ntilde;o varies across different provinces of Pakistan.

Sindh is often more vulnerable to the effects of El Ni&ntilde;o, particularly in terms of heavy rainfall and flooding. There is an increased risk of coastal flooding and waterlogging in low-lying areas due to the flat terrain and proximity to the Arabian Sea. However, due to below-average rainfalls, drought conditions can also plague parts of Sindh<a href="#accordion">[8]</a>. The consistent droughts can cause land degradation and affect crop yields<a href="#accordion">[8]</a>. 
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In Punjab, El Ni&ntilde;o events are linked to both flooding and drought conditions. Heavy rainfall can cause rivers to swell and lead to flooding. At the same time, reduced rainfall or erratic precipitation patterns can result in water scarcity and drought. 
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Balochistan experiences varying impacts during El Ni&ntilde;o events. Some areas may receive heavy rainfall, leading to flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage. For instance, the coastal regions of Balochistan are susceptible to storms and coastal flooding. However, other parts of Balochistan can face drought conditions, reduced rainfall, and water scarcity. 
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Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province can experience both flooding and drought conditions during El Ni&ntilde;o events. Heavy rainfall and glacial melting can lead to riverine flooding, landslides, and infrastructure damage, particularly in hilly and mountainous areas. 
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It&rsquo;s important to note that the impacts can vary within each province, depending on local geography, elevation, proximity to water bodies, and vulnerability of communities. Additionally, the severity and extent of impact can also depend on the strength, duration, and timing of the El Ni&ntilde;o event, as well as its interaction with other climate factors. 
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It&#39;s worth noting that Pakistan has experienced the impacts of El Ni&ntilde;o in the past. The country has experienced the effects of the climate pattern numerous times between 1986 and now.

The 1991-1992 El Ni&ntilde;o brought with it five days of heavy rainfall over Northern Pakistan and caused one of the deadliest floods in the country&rsquo;s history<a href="#accordion">[7]</a>. Punjab, Kashmir, and KPK were the worst affected. 
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Later, in 1997-1998 Pakistan experienced one of the most powerful El Ni&ntilde;o events of the 20th century. Heavy monsoon rains disrupted activities and business across Sindh and Balochistan in August 1997. Although these wet conditions continued in Balochistan for a while, by March 1998, the province experienced one of its worst droughts in 50 years. The drought continued till 2002, affecting millions across Sindh and Balochistan<a href="#accordion">[7]</a>.

The 2004-2005 El Ni&ntilde;o events were relatively weaker in intensity<a href="#accordion">[8]</a>. 
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According to the US science agency NOAA, the world has entered this year&rsquo;s El Ni&ntilde;o phase<a href="#accordion">[5]</a>. Twenty countries are at risk of excessive rainfall, including Pakistan<a href="#accordion">[9]</a>. Moreover, 42 countries are at risk of dry conditions<a href="#accordion">[9]</a>. These include Australia, Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, and the Philippines<a href="#accordion">[7]</a>.

Between 2020 and 2022, there were three consecutive La Ni&ntilde;a episodes, which has only ever happened twice since 1950<a href="#accordion">[9]</a>. While this did prevent global temperatures from rising too high, 2022 was still recorded as the fifth warmest year<a href="#accordion">[5]</a>. Scientists predict that the El Ni&ntilde;o events of 2023 will greatly impact the agricultural sector<a href="#accordion">[6]</a>. Thus, there will be an increase in food insecurity. 
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Conclusion

In conclusion, El Ni&ntilde;o has significant implications for Pakistan. The country has experienced a range of effects, including altered rainfall patterns, water scarcity, agricultural losses, and increased vulnerability to extreme weather events. These impacts have far-reaching consequences, affecting livelihoods, food security, public health, and the overall well-being of communities. Pakistan can improve its preparedness for El Ni&ntilde;o by implementing various measures.

Strengthening early warning systems and monitoring mechanisms can help in predicting El Ni&ntilde;o events and providing timely alerts to vulnerable communities. Enhancing water management practices, such as promoting efficient irrigation techniques and water conservation, can mitigate the impacts of reduced rainfall and water scarcity during El Ni&ntilde;o-induced droughts. Investing in climate-resilient agriculture, including the cultivation of drought-tolerant crops and diversification of farming practices, can help mitigate crop losses.

Developing and implementing disaster risk reduction strategies, including improved infrastructure resilience and land-use planning, can minimize the impact of floods and landslides triggered by El Ni&ntilde;o-related heavy rainfall. Additionally, raising awareness among communities about the potential risks of El Ni&ntilde;o and implementing community-based adaptation measures can enhance preparedness and response capacity at the local level.

All these measures can help the country tackle these challenges head-on and create a more sustainable and resilient future for its people and the environment. 
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Key Takeaways

<ul>
	<li>In a recent update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), scientists have predicted a record surge in global temperatures in the next five years.</li>
	<li>As per Professor Petteri Taalas, WMO Secretry-General, a warming El Ni&ntilde;o is set to push global temperatures further into dangerous levels.</li>
	<li>El Ni&ntilde;o is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.</li>
	<li>El Ni&ntilde;o and La Ni&ntilde;a are two opposite phases of the El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. While El Ni&ntilde;o is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, La Ni&ntilde;a is characterized by unusually cool ocean temperatures in the same region.</li>
	<li>El Ni&ntilde;o can cause considerable changes in the ocean temperatures, the health of coastal fisheries, the strength and speed of ocean currents, and the local weather in various countries, such as Australia.</li>
	<li>As a third-world country, Pakistan is often more vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events.</li>
	<li>According to the US science agency NOAA, the world has entered this year&rsquo;s El Ni&ntilde;o phase. Twenty countries are at risk of excessive rainfall, including Pakistan.</li>
	<li>Pakistan has experienced a range of effects, including altered rainfall patterns, water scarcity, agricultural losses, and increased vulnerability to extreme weather events.</li>
	<li>As El Ni&ntilde;o events become more frequent and intense due to climate change, Pakistan must implement effective water management strategies, promote climate-resilient agriculture, invest in infrastructure, enhance early warning systems, and prioritize sustainable development practices.</li>
</ul>

[1] Babar MS, Tazyeen S, Khan H, Tsagkaris C, Essar MY, Ahmad S. Impact of climate change on Health in Karachi, Pakistan. The Journal of Climate Change and Health. 2021;2:100013. doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2021.100013.

[2] WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (Target years: 2023-2027). World Meteorological Organization.

[3] El Niño. California Department of Fish and Wildlife.

[4] What are El Niño and La Niña? National Ocean Service.

[5] What are El Niño and La Niña, and how do they change the weather? BBC News.

[6] Mian Ahmed Naeem Salik. The Impact of El Niño on Climate in Pakistan. Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. 2023.

[7] Exploring the Complexity of El Nino and its Effects on Rainfall in Pakistan. Pakistan Weather Portal.

[8] Siyal, Ghamz E. Ali, et al. “Understanding El-Niño: Tracing Its Impacts in Sindh, Pakistan.” 70 YEARS OF DEVELOPMENT: THE WAY FORWARD, edited by Sarah S. Aneel et al., Sustainable Development Policy Institute, 2019, pp. 152–63. JSTOR.

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